Real Estate Forecast

Tighter lending criteria and fallout from the subprime loan debacle will lead to a healthier housing market with greater assurance that owners can handle mortgage adjustments, but higher loan standards will slow the housing recovery, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). This month’s forecast marks the first time NAR has predicted a year-over-year decline in national housing prices. Existing-home sales are likely to total 6.34 million in 2007 and 6.52 million next year, in contrast with 6.48 million in 2006. New-home sales are seen at 904,000 this year and 935,000 in 2008, below the 1.05 million last year. Housing starts are estimated at 1.47 million in 2007 and 1.55 million next year, down from 1.80 million units in 2006. The national median existing-home price will probably slip 0.7 percent to $220,300 in 2007, following a 1.0 percent rise last year. The median new-home price is projected to increase 0.4 percent to $246,200 this year, after gaining 1.8 percent in 2006. Modest growth is expected next year, with existing-home prices increasing 1.6 percent and new-home prices rising 2.0 percent.

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