Housing Decline Likely To Last Into 2009, Analyst Says

Ivy Zelman's view of the U.S. housing market is gloomy, but it's probably the most realistic. A veteran Wall Street analyst, Zelman, chief executive of the research firm Zelman & Associates, says it's unlikely the U.S. housing market will recover before 2009, adding there's a '50 to 60 percent chance of a recession,' as the housing slump curbs consumer spending. Zelman paints a much darker picture than Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said last week that housing will be a 'significant drag' on the economy into next year. When you consider the huge home inventories and tight-as-a-drum mortgage restrictions, it's easy to conclude that the housing slump could extend well past 2008. Unless financing loosens up and buyers return, her prophecy will become a reality.

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