Square-footage formula shows housing bottom beckons

Here's a little numerical quiz: 155, 124, 97. It's not the Pick 3 Lottery. The first represents Pinellas County, where homes sell for an average of $155 per square foot. The second is Hillsborough County, where homes go for $124 per square foot. Pasco County's homes sell for $97 per square foot. Land scarcity and amenities account for most of the price differences. Pinellas is built out and boasts the beaches. Hillsborough's South Tampa-to-Carrollwood core oozes exclusivity. And Pasco has built its reputation as an affordable bedroom community built atop cheap land. Based on market trends, Pasco's price floor is supposedly $93 per square foot. Since it's $97 today, Pasco should reach its floor in October. Pinellas buyers can support a square foot price of $144, $11 less than today's price which is predicted to bottom out in November. That leaves Hillsborough in the problem column. A price floor of $105 per square foot is justified, well below today's $124. Trends suggest prices won't hit bottom until March 2010.

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